HAUSS MAGAZINE · 8 min read
Dubai real estate is usually discussed in extremes: either it's the next great bubble, or it's the unmissable opportunity of the decade. The reality behind the latest data is more nuanced — and, for a serious investor, more interesting than either headline.
A record year, with caveats
In 2025, Dubai recorded AED 917 billion across more than 270,000 transactions — a year-on-year increase of roughly 20%, in both volume and value, according to CBRE UAE. Figures like these confirm a sustained trend, not an isolated spike.
Off-plan, the market's engine
Nearly 70% of 2025 transactions were off-plan sales — 149,230 deals worth AED 448 billion. The trend has held into 2026: the first quarter recorded 30,000 off-plan transactions worth AED 73.4 billion, up from AED 53.9 billion in the same period of 2025.
A market this weighted toward off-plan demands more discipline, not less: developer solvency and realistic delivery timelines matter every bit as much as location.
2026: the expansion continues
According to the Dubai Land Department, the first quarter of 2026 closed with 31% year-on-year growth, reaching AED 252 billion. The full first half totalled 86,005 transactions worth AED 286.43 billion — the second-best half-year in the market's history, behind only H1 2025 itself.
Who is investing in Dubai
The buyer base is deliberately diversified: India (~22%), the United Kingdom (17%), China (14%), Saudi Arabia (11%) and Russia (9%) led 2025 transactions. No single origin concentrates the risk — a trait Dubai shares, interestingly, with the Marbella market.
A market that diversifies its sources of capital is, almost without exception, more resilient than one that depends on a single buyer profile.
A Golden Visa opening just as Spain closes its own
In January 2026, the Dubai Land Department relaxed its residency-by-investment programme: buyers can now qualify for the Golden Visa on a mortgaged property valued above AED 2 million, with a 50% down payment — previously, full payment was required. The move stands in direct contrast to Spain's elimination of its own Golden Visa in 2025, positioning Dubai as the more accessible route to residency by investment right now.
What to watch
Neither CBRE nor JLL describes this cycle as risk-free. Both firms point to price and rent growth that is starting to moderate, and a substantial pipeline of future supply still to be absorbed. The reasonable reading is neither euphoria nor alarm, but a market shifting from growth at any cost to growth with more discipline — for a discerning investor, that shift tends to be a positive signal rather than a negative one.
At HAUSS MARKET, we track Dubai as one of the key pillars of our international reach — precisely because of that combination of scale, diversification and a degree of market discipline that, until recently, was the exception rather than the rule.